Big differences between real deaths and official statistics are possible due to insufficient diagnostics and problems with reporting death data.
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Officially, 5.9 million people died from COVID-19 between January 1, 2020 and December 31, 2021. A new study published in The Lancet estimates that there were 18.2 million additional deaths over the same period, more than three times as many. This suggests that the full impact of the pandemic on humanity could have been much greater.
Excess mortality – the excess of the observed mortality rate over the expected value. This is a key indicator of the true death toll from the pandemic.
Prior to this study, there were several attempts to estimate excess mortality from COVID-19, but most were limited in geographic coverage due to data availability. The new paper presents the first peer-reviewed estimates of excess mortality due to the pandemic globally and for 191 countries and territories (and 252 subnational localities such as states and provinces) between January 1, 2020 and December 31, 2021.
The analysis shows that by December 31, 2021, the global excess deaths due to the pandemic could be 18.2 million, more than three times the official figure. An estimated 21 countries have excess mortality rates above 300 per 100,000 population.
The highest estimated rates of excess mortality were in the Andes of Latin America (512 deaths per 100,000 population), Eastern Europe (345 deaths per 100,000 people), Central Europe (316 deaths per 100,000 people), southern sub-Saharan Africa ( 309 deaths per 100,000 people) and Central Latin America (274 deaths per 100,000 population).
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Big differences between excess deaths and official data may be the result of underdiagnosis due to lack of testing and problems with reporting deaths.
According to scientists, it is critical to distinguish between deaths caused directly by COVID-19 and those that are occurred as an indirect result of the pandemic. Data from initial studies indicate that a significant proportion of excess deaths are a direct result of COVID-19. However, death could also have occurred indirectly from causes such as suicide or drug use, behavioral changes, or lack of access to health care and other basic services during the pandemic.